New Hope for Mexico? - My view as one who lived there.

It’s a strange coincidence that the two parts of Mexico where I lived are also the two hotbeds of drug trafficking and violence — Jalisco and Sinaloa.

I know what you may be thinking. ”Hmm, is it really a coincidence?” 

But yes, it is. I was just a kid the first time I moved to Guadalajara, Jalisco, with my family. So any imagined stories of “El Gringo, the Child Narco Kingpin,” are pure fiction. Forget about it.

Guadalajara is the second-largest city in Mexico, and the largest in the state of Jalisco. It was outside that city this week that Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” the notorious leader of an extremely violent narcotics gang, was captured and killed.

I’m not a big fan of President Sheinbaum. Her socialist policies and weak-on-crime comments are concerning. But what she and her administration did this week deserves respect. Aided by undisclosed U.S. intelligence efforts, Mexican forces followed El Mencho’s girlfriend to his hideout, where a firefight began. El Mencho was wounded, captured, and then died on the way to Mexico City. If you believe the rumors, his guards may have finished him off intentionally in transport, worried that he would quickly escape prison and then come back to kill them and their families. With his history, such concerns would be justified.

The Mexican cartels are massive. They function both as a shadow state within a state, (with cohorts embedded in the government, military, and police forces), and as an international corporation controlling billions of dollars in wealth. They have tens of thousands of foot soldiers and have purchased significant military gear from unscrupulous sellers. But they have been having a rougher go of it lately. One of their primary industries is human trafficking into the United States, along with drug sales. Joe Biden functioned very literally as a silent partner for them. His open borders policy created the opportunity, and the “coyotes” seized it, raising billions by charging people around the world to transport them up to and across the border. The trip was awful, replete with the worst of crimes especailly toward women and children, but they usually reached their destination. Get across, stay across, was the modus operandi, and everyone paid in full. If you didn’t, the cartel made sure your loved ones did, one way or another. 

Life was good…for the cartels.

But then Joe Biden left, and a big fat orange loser took his place. In literally one day, that marvelous revenue stream was gone. No one gets across the border today without a background check, and that makes business very hard on the coyotes.

But “El Trumpo” wasn’t done. He is looking for a permanent change in Mexico and intends to help bring that about. Frankly, a lot of Mexicans are looking for a permanent change in Mexico, too. The many decent people there would love to see their side gain the upper hand for once. Right now, cartels are everywhere. 

The family I lived with in Sinaloa lost their family farm to the narcos, some years after I went back to the States. The cartel bought up farmland around them, priced their vegetables below market, and drove them out of business. It was terrible. “Don’t go into farming,” the Dad sadly told his three boys. None of them did. The cartels do this to gain a look of legitimacy (“we’re just farmers”), along with land for airstrips, drug warehouses, and an easy way to launder their illicit profits. The honest Mexicans feel powerless to do anything against them.

In spite of recent actions, the cartels are still powerful. They have the money to wait out Donald Trump for a more friendly White House inhabitant, and their actions this week were meant as a warning that they don’t intend to go down without a fight. But the squeeze is on, with military power on one side and financial undercutting on the other. And they are also a little scared. Do I think it’s by chance that no Americans have been injured or kidnapped in this recent violence? No, I don’t. 

The bad guys of the world fear the U.S. and firmly believe that Donald Trump is a loose cannon, just looking for an excuse to ram a nuke up their tailpipes. They are going to try very hard not to give him that excuse. Love him or hate him, that belief keeps Americans safer abroad, and it is a trait Trump shared with Ronald Reagan.  But lots of work remains. Lots of courage will be needed, especially from Mexican authorities and citizens, and this battle for decency in Mexico is not over. But I can’t remember the last time it even seemed possible. This week it does.